February 26, 2009


The members of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE)
see a sharp decline in economic activity throughout the first quarter
of this year with continued contraction in the United States through
second quarter and a virtually flat third and fourth quarter. The
result will be a net decline of 0.9% in GDP for 2009, according to the
February Outlook survey.

“The good news is that economic activity is expected to turn up in the
second half of the year and 2010 is expected to see modestly above-
trend growth of 3.1%” according NABE President Chris Varvares,
president of group Macroeconomic Advisers and a member of the NABE. The
NABE Outlook survey presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts
from a panel of 47 professional economic forecasters.

Among the key forecasts of the February 2009 survey:

 The current downturn will most resemble that of 1973-75.

 Real government spending will advance 2.8% in 2009.

 The consumer price index will decline 0.8% in 2009, as already large
commodity price declines pass through to consumer prices.

 The jobless rate will peak at 9.0% by the end of the year. House
prices will decline 5% during 2009, though the S&P 500 index is
expected to rise a solid 8% by December 31, 2009.

SOURCE: National Association for Business Economics


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: